>> traditional forces capabilities continue to decline slowly but they continued to be large and adequately maintained. in other words, yes the north koreans may be going up against south korean indigenous tanks with t. 62 but their well-maintained. they just don't have a lot of fuel to run out and practice all the time. the result is evolving threat that keeps the status quo on the korean peninsula, literally a cold war miniature. it is extremely expensive to maintain. your talk to one of the key reasons why there are problems for north korean populace writ large because the huge expanse of this military. north korea's nuclear weapons but often little attention is paid to other aspects of the threat it presents to the
region. that's what a want to talk about tonight, somewhat. i'll talk about other stuff as well, and that is the subject of an entire chapter in my book. when i talk about north korea's threat there are three key pillars. long range artillery, ballistic missiles, and special operations forces. this allows the nk p.a. to threaten rok and u.s. forces with affordability in ways that are highly difficult to defend. so let me talk about the long range artillery first. north korea's after 900 long range systems and the systems we would be 170-millimeter guns, which a range of about 40,000 meters, and 240-millimeter old will rocket launchers which have a range of about 60,000 meters. yes, these systems can hit seoul from beyond the dnc would've sitting. to make that threat to exacerbate that threat i should say, five to 20% of the systems are insisted equipped equipped with chemical initiatives.
so according to rok minister of national defense estimates and u.s. dod estimates, if these systems were fired at the beginning of any conflict, 200,000 caches are projected just in the first hours of conflict. most in seoul and the majority of them civilians. reports indicate more systems have been moved closer to the dmz in the past 18 months. in fact, there were six systems moved just last week within to columbus of the dmz. in the corridor which is facing seoul. so very interesting stuff. but wait, there's more. north korea has used asymmetry in its traditional artillery systems, and for those of you who work anywhere -- how many here own a tv? for those of you who have a tv and turned it on to the news last november, you know what the
north koreans can do with artillery because on november 23, which by the way was when i had my first coming out party for this book, they conducted an artillery barrage against the island. november 23 they conducted this artillery barrage. they killed two south korean marines and they killed two civilians. and the wounded 22 people. i don't know how many of you saw the actual film but they conducted an artillery barrage of the town. they shelled the town. this is very interesting to me. because the north koreans are clearly outgunned by south korean artillery. south korean artillery including the artillery that sits on that island is the very best artillery in the world. it's an exact copy of u.s. 155 self-propelled artillery and it's made in seoul, great stuff. the north koreans very cleverly used geography and mass to
outgun these south korean forces. and before and, surprise, and symmetry. before the south koreans knew what hit them they had 24 casualties. so just something to think about. north koreans right now today can hit every single inch of every single island that the south koreans are on, that sits in the northern port. so very interesting stuff. will we see something like this again? my answer to that is probably. it may not be artillery. it could be a special operations forces attack one of the five islands that sits off the coast. it could be a lot of things that we could expect to see that again and again. something that is well planned, something that took months to build up, and americans and south koreans, many of us sitting back in 2010 were saying, this looks like a builder. they conduct act is exercises that were within to columbus of the silence. but still nobody thought north korea would actually just shell
and island, and they sure enough it. something else to keep in mind that comes to artillery. let's talk about the second pillar of the asymmetric threat. ballistic missile. i think most of us know north korea has missiles and they present significant missile threat. north korea continues to hold table to which is the ballistic missile they're trying to build a can hit the united states. california, not texas. california. alaska, hawaii. [laughter] my parents liquor, so, you know, concern for me as well. the first time they tested it was 2006. it's a three stage missile. all the way for its first age over the sea of japan and as it was going from its first taste of second stage, it blew up. said every said oh, those dumb north koreans can't build three stage missile. 2009, three years later they
tested it again. this time it'll all the way towards its are stage, all the way through its second stage, and as he was going into its third stage it tumbled into the ocean. the pacific ocean which, of course, the koreans and japanese call home. but what this shows is not so much failure but advancement. because it shows that they are advancing getting dismissal ready to go. wants this missile is ready to go it will be able to hit at a minimum alaska and hawaii at worst. they also have scads, scat be, see, d., extended range, ranges from 350 kilometers, 850 columbus. what does that mean? it means north korea can hit every single inch of south korean landmass with the scud missile. this is not a capability at 15 years ago. it's a capability they have no. so if one talks about tanks he can't run as well because they don't have as much fuel, now
they don't need to use those perhaps to take around. they can just buy a ballistic missile. so something to keep in mind. they also have at least 200 missiles which have a range of 13-1500 kilometers. that means they can hit tokyo. it also means for you former marines in the audience, they can hit okinawa. and they have what's called the moussa don missile or a missile with a range of 4000 kilometers based on old soviet ss in six technology. what they did was in 1992 they got a bunch of russian rogue scientists to detect, or sell them since the. they got this splm and they converted it to a missile that could relaunch from it launcher, a long tractor-trailer that can
erect a missile like this. then they made it longer because their north koreans and that's what they do with missiles. and as soon as they had that missile ready to go which was 2005, they sold 18 of them to iran. and iran speaking of these missiles which can now target nato headquarters in brussels from iran. they've already tested it once and it works out a range of 4000 kilometers. what does this mean for americans? this means they can head from north korea, guam. this means they can hit guam. why is guam so important to north koreans? as the general know since he was the head planner on the korean peninsula, south korea and u.s. forces in the '90s, guam is a key staging area for u.s. air power in case we have to strike a north korea.
so this is a significant threat. they have been able to post this threat to us beginning on 2006. they have 200 of these missiles. something to think about. that's the second pillar. ballistic missile threat. let's meet -- let me talk about if i may, the third pillar of the asymmetric threat. that would be special operations forces. many times people ramp special forces, special operations force, my answer is there is only one truly special forces called the united states marine corps. that's unimportant right now. but the north korean special operation forces are easily the best trained, best and most indoctrinated of nkpa forces. they can attack from the air through tunnels under the dmz and by illegally entering the rok, for example, because north koreans look exactly like south koreans since they are koreans.
they have done this. they've stuck, stuck special operations forces guys in to assassinate people, such as the botched attempt, the highest-ranking defector ever to come south. they also do it by maritime means. to you submarines and semi submersible to infiltrate the south. sof numbers and north korea have increased by 50% since 2006. this is a significant threat. they converted seven divisions. think about this guys cock seven divisions who like entropy. close to 50,000 men. and one of the things that they've done this to a lot of heavy artillery, some of tanks out of these divisions can push them farther south on the invasion quarter and then a train. 50,0050,000 guys that dennis
mertzanis 2006. the minister of national defense white paper which is a big estimate of south korean puts out each are estimated now 200,000 special operations forces. significant threat. they can go in behind enemy lines, to all kinds of things, disrupt our command-and-control. this is a planning nightmare. something else to think about. but wait, there's more. dprk is also used for peacetime provocations, intelligence collection and terrorist acts. e.g., the recent sinking of the chouinard was a special operations forces, mini submarine. it was not a north korean navy submarine. it was an sof submarines operated by gentlemen, if you want to call the macro from the reconnaissance, which is in many ways kim jong-il's pet rok and comes under the umbrella of his childhood best friend, who's on
the national defense commission. the submarine that sank it, for those of you who are interested in exact figures, the submarine, the ship was split in half, crew of 102, 46 men were killed. half the crew was killed. that submarine was -- north korea originally developed that subbing for the good friends the iranians because iran's coastline in the korean peninsula's western coastline have something in common. very unpredictable tides. shallow waters, but he waters, the iranians wanted something to get opera easily in those kinds of waters. north koreans came up with this, and discovered they could do other stuff with it besides just proliferate it to rogue nations like iran. maritime as well for also used to infiltrate troops, conduct intelligence collection missions and make drug drops to places like japan, south korea, and the
philippines, for example. north korea made about two and half billion dollars last year from illegal drugs. most of them were run through networks that were organized by and with north korean government approval and training. and special operations forces played a key role in that. so kudos might assessment of nk be a asymmetric capabilities, i would say pyongyang is adjusting its resources in order to focus on its asymmetric capability. i think it in a very good job of doing that. while some conventional capabilities continue to decline, slowly, the asymmetric capabilities have actually improved in the past 10 years. gaps created in rok and u.s. forces during the early days and weeks of combat could create openings for less capable but still highly deadly forces to take round and caused heavy casualties. north korea, and this is something that is very
important, as have increase the capability of the asymmetric forces that have deployed the key armored mechanized artillery and infantry forces near the invasion corridors. as the general know and as many of you know have seen these corridors, including my father in 1993, the korean peninsula is very mountainous. the mountains are like a spine that runs down the korean peninsula. they are to corridors that you can go north or south, a lot of armor, mechanized forces, et cetera, runs directly all the way down into seoul. it is these two corridors that the north koreans have moved their military forces, massively moved, 70% of the forces now are sitting on these two invasion corridors. so something to think about. as my good friend generally harris would call this, he called it the tyranny of proximity. i think what this shows is that tyranny of proximity which
augments this disposition of forces which augments the asymmetric capability means that the nonnuclear forces, the conventional forces, are still a significant threat. so something to think about. i won't redo the numbers because i don't want to bore everybody to death. let's talk about north korea and proliferation north korea, i think a lot of people took notice when the jenna was a nationals. last two president obama last year saying his main concern was proliferation. but i would certainly at least partially agree with that. i think it's one of the key threats, several threats from north korea. could've north korea proliferate to? let's start off with some other key players. north korea proliferates to syria, a nuclear weapons program, a plutonium nuclear weapons program. they actually built for the
syrians -- west in the syrian desert. and they try to get slick about this but the north koreans put a fake roof over it like you would miss a platoon nuclear facility, right? our friends, the injuries destroyed that facility in 2007 and, of course, the iranians denied any involvement. what happened? you know. the north koreans have also built for syria a chemical weapons facility which remains open. prior to building a facility, the north koreans actually just supplied them with chemical weapons. not only have they built a facility for the syrians by the north koreans and the syrian military guys go out and practice in full mop gear. mask and all that stuff, every year. with allied chemical weapons using artillery.
we can all just imagine what the main target will be. so very interesting stuff. they have also sold every single type of scud missile to the series. there was a skit sitting on a pad that was going with wi-fi with a chemical warhead, at what, i have no idea but it blew up on the pad and killed about 20 syrian and iranian engineers in the process. this was about two and half years ago. a very interesting stuff. they also proliferate life right unconventional weapons to syria. how about iran? all of the above. and highly enriched uranium nuclear program. if north korea has it, you can bet iran has it. why? iran is willing to pay for that iran is a supply north korea. it is north korea supplying iran. they also have every single type of missile that north korea has developed. scabby thomas kidd c. thomas
kidd d. extended range, and have them listed on which i mentioned earlier. and every time the north koreans do a live missile firing they bring in iranian engineers, technicians, vips and they have been receiving for money or oil i miss all the technology the north koreans have been using for their three launch a. so interesting so. north korea also proliferate ballistic missiles and conventional weapons throughout the middle east. south asia and africa. why would north korea be so successful? because there are so many countries who want weapons that traditional western countries like our own will not sell to them. they have to get these weapons from rogue states. e.g. central african republic, bought a bunch of t. 54 tanks are north koreans two years ago
and they were caught taking shipment of those tanks by the south african navy. why would they want to buy this one account three years after the create more? and why are the north koreans still manufacturing these tanks? they want to buy those tanks because that's what the russians supplied him with 30 years ago. north koreans wanted to sell them to tanks and build the tanks because they know people still buy them. this is a buyer's market, sellers market. it is working well for the north koreans and the nations who want to buy their stuff. but wait, there's more. north korea also proliferates to nonstate actors. that is, terrorist groups. dprk provided weapons and training to the the male tigers up until sri lankan army drove them into the sea. this was a very interesting way to buy -- to fight a counterinsurgency.
the sri lankan army did that so my hats off to them. the north koreans applied with a 100 artillery. wanted to do arbitrary i should say, multiple rocket launcher with machine guns but it was amazed by the thing that made it more interesting was that one stage i in the conflict they're selling weapons both tigers and to the army. businessmen. that's done the. the north koreans lost a customer. the dprk built tunnels for hezbollah use during the 2006 war with israel. and provide small arms including rockets, fired into israel. i have seen pictures, photographs of rockets fired into israel with north korean markings on them. said south koreans don't make rockets, medicine they are north
koreans. this is a big problem for israel. you can bet the israeli government has brought it up with either. the dprk also collaborates with an proliferates to the iranian republican guard corps, a state department designated terrorist organization but this relationship is long-standing and ongoing. this relationship is perhaps the most important because the irgc conducts with other governments that iran supplies and have a very close relationship north arenas come huge offices for the counterparts. so we have that. might assessment on countering dprk proliferation and support to terrorism is u.n. sanctions must be enforced not only by u.s. and key allies, but by other u.n. members. since 2009 is hasn't proved. renewed emphasis on security initiative is important to are now more than 96 member states
in the proliferation security initiative. now that there are members they need to improve their trading during exercise and a member states, improve coordination and focus on following the money. because that's what we can really hit north korea. a u.s. rocket japan and other key allies need to work with international law enforcement to get this done. we must go after not company by company but in mass north korean front companies, networks in from and individual north koreans. let me give you one example. some of you probably saw in the news that there was a russian built georgian registered cargo aircraft with 35 tons of military equipment bound for iran that was caught in thailand on its way from north korea. it went through friday -- five
front companies. one of those front companies was registered in new zealand. i'm not saying that new zealand people want to do business with north korea but that shows that north koreans are willing to go through all the steps, these elaborate steps, tactics, techniques and procedures that will throw us all. we really have to watch it very carefully. and the final thing that i would say is usually important when it comes to north korean proliferation. is north korea needs to be relisted on the state department list of nations supporting terrorism. why? because north korea is a state that supports terrorism. so there we go. that's the proliferation threat. please allow me to talk about the north korean nuclear programs and the threat they present. what do the north koreans want to do? let me please offer this assessment. their goal is to mandate the
negotiations and putting six-party talks to obtain aid while agreeing in principal to dismantlement. how do i know that this is the modus operandi? because we saw them run circles around the bush administration between 2005-2009. where did we get? know what to do also want to prevent inspection regimes for assessing, accessing, hidden components of the programs. that north koreas will always in cooperation of the point work final program elements are threatened with significant aid has been acquired. in 2000, between 2008 and 2009, north korea took a great amount of aid from the other five parties in the six-party talks including the training with the exception of japan i might add. we took them off the list of nations that support terrorism, and what do they do? right when we got to that key point where they had to actually show us, but to see that they had dismantled the program, they found a way to walk away from
the talks. what does this all mean? curbing north korea has at least six to eight plutonium weapons. what does eight plutonium weapon threat? realistically something they get up out of the back of one of their bomber aircraft, the difficult for them. more realistic scenario would be then putting it, one of those large primitive devices on a cargo ship where they where they could sail it into tokyo bay or norfolk. that they could probably get away with pretty easily. there's another nuclear threat that they have. there's the highly enriched uranium program. we now know that they likely have or will have very soon westernized highly enriched uranium. why is heu so much more threat than plutonium? one key reason is it's much easy, easier to manage arise. they have the design for a 500-kilogram warhead for a missile that can carry it, awarded. they also the missile that is
stable enough to carry it. which means right now as we're speaking to a north korea probably has the capability to fire a nuclear missile at tokyo. so something to keep in mind. the fourth threat from north korea that i think is very important, and this may end up being the most important north korea threat is the regime succession process in north korea. can kim jong-il control the regime's succession process? maybe. kim has three sons. his oldest son is named kim jong-un and his nickname in south korea is the fat bear because he has a head about as big as this podium. is a very chubby little guy. kim jong-un has a flat my count, he's got an apartment in beijing. he is an apartment in paris, one reported in geneva. he's kind of a playboy kind of a
goofball, tried to stick them into tokyo disney a few years ago when they all got out. he tried to sneak in and on a slovenian passport by the way. i wish i could've been a fly on the wall as he is trying to sneak in to tokyo with a -- excuse me, you don't look -- wait a minute. are you slovenian? yes, i'm a slovenian. so interesting stuff turkey is falling out of favor with his father as far as being the successor. is almost always not a north korea. is gallivanting everywhere. and reportedly has girlfriend, he's married, has girlfriends in everyone of these places, reportedly. let's get to the second son. the second son is named kim jong told. is a big eric clapton fan. he followed eric clapton as a groupie. around western europe a couple years ago. sulleys we know he has good taste. i'm getting my age way. cream i thought was a great group at my father is in the audience. get to listen to eric clapton way more than he wanted what i was going up.
but big eric -- eric clapton fan. if you heard eric clapton might come to north korea, that was why. he is from a different mother, educated in switzerland as was kim jong-non. he is too much of a girlie man to take over as leader of the dprk. he reportedly has to actually take medicine, male hormones and for that reason his father does not think he would be a legitimate leader of north korea. so now we're on to the third son. kim jong-un. kim jong-un is two years younger, about 20 a.m. and also educated in switching come same private school, and for those of you who saw the pictures last fall at his coming
out party, he looks a lot like his grandpa. kim jong-un looks a lot like kim il-sung. he's got the chubby cheeks, unocal was the same outfits. he is the guy. .com why is this concern? like to address this for you. in north korea there is no such thing as a hierarchical organization of government. it's more like a guy in the middle of a circle and all other institutions feed into them. it's been that way since 1948, since kim ong still officially took over. he set up a government that way for his own kim jong-il. get 20 years ago from 1974 until 94. that's when the whole process started. you cannot run that country unless you control the party, the military, the secure services and that a thinking entity known as the kim family inner circle. kim jong-il control all of them. it all started in 1974.
i 1992, actually, he was a five star general in the army even though he had never served before. he was the head of the organization and guidance department for the party which controls not on what happens in the party that controls promotion for the military. he was the head of the state security department, ministry of people's security, the two biggest security services in north korea out of about eight security services. and his father had purged all of his relatives that he was out of favor with. they were in places like poland. so he was set up for that when his father died in 1994. none of this has happened effectively for kim jong-un yet. his father is trying to set him up as you guys probably know from his report as a general in the army. he's not there yet. he's in the party. he's got a place in the oh gt,
organization of guidance department but he's not running it. there have been problems with him as some of you have seen in the press getting along with people in the secret he surfaced and been problems reported he's even tried to have his older brother assassinated. believe it or not. so there's still some issues there. nobody outside of cam controlled anymore than a few staff members. in the army, if you are a general commanding a core, a general commanding a division, a colonel commanded a regiment, commanding a battalion, on your left shoulder you have a guy from the security services, the state saturday department overlooking i going to do things politically correct according to the party. on your right shoulder guy from the general political bureau that is making sure that you're actually not going to try and overthrow the government. so unlike china would have a political officer in every unit,
and unlike the soviet union, everybody here saw the hunt for red october i'm sure sean conner had to kill a political officer before he could take over the submarine, in north korea you have to kill to guys. and the entities to separate change of command. so kim has built this country, the power base for this country very effectively so that nobody will controls enough of the power that somebody could come in and just take over. a coup d'état. everybody is watching everybody else. so it's very interesting to note that his -- interesting. no? sounds like something else. so anyway, it's very interesting to note that in order for his son to take over, his dad has to build a power base for him in the party, the army, the
security services and in the kim family regime. has he been able to do that? not yet. it took 20 years to do for kim jong-il. can kim jong-il do that in a matter of far fewer years for his son. kim jong-il has diabetes, heart trouble, kidney dialysis. he's probably not going to last more than five years. what does that mean? it means that should he die within the next five years, there's no better than a 50/50% chance that that regime can survive. there's a huge chance that regime could fall into implosion, explosion, or complete civil war. anarchy type activity. this is absolutely something that people that follow the general are planning for the right now. this means a lot of military involvement from both south korea and the united states, probably led by the south korean military with a lot of support from the united states. this is a very real possibility. and that is why the north korean regime process is the forefront
-- the fourth threat. that's the last chapter in my book. i'm happy to answer your questions. [applause] >> well, dr. bechtol, fascinating. fascinating and depressing a little bit i have to tell you. a segue into question you on your last comment in terms of north korea in succession, the south koreans preparing for the eventual flood of north koreans come into south korea to flee catastrophe? >> i believe they are. you spend a lot more time in korea than most americans have, so, you know, this better than most. you know, the south koreans and north koreans don't really think of themselves as separate peoples. they consider themselves, and i think pretty accurate, a family that has been torn apart. i think south korea has plans in
effect. i know they do. and we're helping them with some of those plans, to reunify families when north korea implodes or falls apart. i think a lot of those plans will have some issues as families start, as the huge influx of families start coming. it's not going to be thousands of people. i think it we millions of people and i think that could be a real issue. so it'll be interesting to see what happens. i think everybody is expecting that, and everyone is doing everything they can to try and make that as well organized a process as they can. >> the temporary suspension of hostilities that took place in south korea and north korea in 1954 were signed by china, north korea, the united states and south korea. want china's role of now in this whole effort with north korea, number one? and number two, what's the relevance of that document that
was signed in 1954? >> great question. first of all, there was a nation that the general did not mission and that was the republic of korea. they refused to sign a document, which is always been a key thing the north koreans keep bringing up as you know. and what was the rest of the question? >> well, the first part that with china's role because they were a signature. >> people have asked me about this a lot, especially the past year or so. how effective, how strong of a role does china play with north korea? and i would say it's fairly simple. china has more influence on north korea than anybody else at that is to say, not a lot. the north koreans really do -- the north koreans really do --
interesting. the north koreans really do have a very close relationship with the chinese, and it's -- i don't know what that is, interference. interesting. it's not even in this hotel so it's getting some kind of interference. specular, the north grants of the close relationship the chinese, they get 90% of the fuel from the chinese. of their fuel from the chinese. the rest barclay from places like iran. but yet the chinese often are surprised think north koreans do. for example, when it detonated nuclear weapon in 2006 they notified the chinese two hours before they went to do it. we're going to detonate his bomb. that was it. the chinese exert as much
influence over the north koreans as they can, largely through economic means. something else that i think is very important that acing south koreans need to consider is let's say that north korea and, i apologize i'm getting off on a tangent, south korea, let's say north korea implodes and south korea -- the country is fall apart. they are falling into anarchy. the south korean president calls in the chinese ambassador and says, it's time. the window is open. it's time for us tonight with her brothers and sisters. what will it take to keep you guys out of the work? and the chinese ambassador, i can almost for sure tell you this, we'll pull out a prepared list of things and we did to the president of south korea. the key which will be we have the following investments in north korea. you will honor those investments when you move into north korea, and we will leave you alone.
because china has invested hugely -- they have quadrupled their investments in north korea over the past three years. i think that will be a major issue. so did have influence? yes, sir they do. they play a role. unfortunately, for the chinese, north koreans, like koreans have for the past 4000 years is the dynasty, continue to do pretty much exactly what they want. >> since the signing of the agreement in 1954, there has been an effort by the north koreans to separate the dialogue that we would have with the signatures, and they want a bilateral discussion in the united states. when i was there it was one of the efforts insisted upon that we were never going to let the north koreans separate the united states in south korea for me discussions with north korea. are their efforts now with united states is part of the bilateral discussions with north
korean? >> i don't think that's very likely. what i hear being talked about is discussions again, but at least at the high levels, united states wants to go back to some level of talks, once north korea has proven that the a series about dismantling their nuclear program. the united states wants south korea at those talks. up for those of you who haven't been following the news on korea real closely, south korea has no intention of going back to any talks and we're not going to go without them. that's obama's policy. they have no intention of going back to any talks until north korea admits to and apologizes for the sinking of the ship and artillery barrage on the other pics were pretty much at a mexican standoff right now from an old clint eastwood movie. this is an issue, and there are many things that many policies that are disagree with, but i
definitely agree with a united states policy what we are joined at the hip with our south korean allies. i just don't think that there's any realistic way we can bring stability to the peninsula without doing it that way spent during the clinton administration there was an agreement to help in the north koreans have a peaceful nuclear program and a south koreans were part of that. what happened to that initiative? >> it went the way of the edsel and the passenger pigeon, serve. [laughter] it's not there. as you probably know, you know a lot about the nuclear issues. and lots of other issues as well. the north koreans very proudly showed off to my friend jack pritchard last fall that there's no build a light water reactor at pyongyang. and then it is for peaceful purposes. now i'd also like to point out that the pyongyang facility
where they have come with a develop that material that goes into weaponize plutonium bombs has never had any wires running out of it to anywhere. in other words, since its very beginning it is not powering anything. they are just developing fissile material there. very interesting stuff. spent a couple of questions about your for different threats. you talk about the ballistic missile threat to have the japanese indicated in the defensive and initiatives that they've taken to be able to defend against the north koreans ballistic missile? >> that's a great question. the japanese have absolutely done that. before the 2009 launched, i might add, one of my former students in the marine corps command and staff college who is an officer in the army, now a lieutenant colonel, he deployed with a battalion we sent over
there, patriot missiles, advanced patriot missile. pack three is advance over the pack two which has a shotgun blasting like what we saw in the cold war. pack three is going up with a bullet. we sent over a bunch of factories to the japanese. we also had ships at the sm three missile system them as you know in the east sea, sea of japan. and so we were ready. and the japanese were ready and that allowed us to do that. since that time, japan has purchased its own pack three missile systems and they now have sm three anti-missiles on their own ages equipped ships and they have joined us, although it's an ongoing process and become part of the u.s. system. i might add, and that's a great question, i might add this is something the south koreans need to do right now. because north korea presents a
much larger ballistic missile threat to south korea than they do to japan, and south korea right now there are today in south korea 64 pack three systems. they protect u.s. bases and u.s. troops. so if you're a south korean on the us-based your protected. if you're a south korean in seoul, you're not. south korea factories and sm threes to protect the own population centers and bases and they need to get in with the system and they need to do it right now. >> several questions on the succession process. and issue you raise with her three sons. the questions relate to the north korean armies acceptance of a son as their leader. is there any indication that automatically the north korean army will accept whoever kim
jong-il appoints? >> that's a very good question. if you are a general in the north korean army, you drive a mercedes. in the late 1990s, kim jong-il issued a directive that all of his generals, division commander and above will be issued mercedes. why do i bring this up? because major myatt's articulation of the question is very important to these are guys who understand because of the way the system works, because of the way it has worked since 1948, unless they have a family succession, those guys are likely to lose power. and what they don't want is to be hanging from a meat hook mussolini style, you know, when that country implodes. so they would like to see a family succession were largely for selfish reasons. now, that said, they understand that the sun is weak, he's young. it's going to be very interesting to see how all of
that plays out. but because the way the military is set up there's just no way, it would almost be impossible for a military general to throw a coup d'état and the party watches the military, too, carefully. does that make sense to you? >> and really the final question deals with much when i opened the talk with him telling the story about the development of personal relationship rather than a professional relationship in the asian society. former ambassador donald gregg is somewhat of an expert on the current situation has recently written a paper that's been published in both the united states and korea that talks about the food shortage in north korea. and in the past that our government has been one that supports supplying food to the north koreans to help them with the starvation issues they have. and he's arguing in newspaper
that the united states should reinstitute that program this current administration has not decided to provide food to north korea. should we be providing food to north korea? >> i'm not sure that there's anything ambassador greatest ever written that i ever agreed with. [laughter] we've had some interesting conversations but if you don't want to call them arguments, but that's a very good question. i would say fully once, you know, shame on you. fool me twice, shame on me. the biggest issue, the recent white united nations, white ngos and i geos come into government or decision and non-non-governmental organizations, have what is called donor fatigue, a slang term that was invaded because north korea. the reason they have donor fatigue is because of the fact that as this it goes in, the north korean government does not allow these organizations, many of them don't work for
governments, they don't allow them to see where the food goes. and what does that mean the food goes? that means the majority of it goes to the north korean people's army. and what they don't use, the leftovers are given to the civilian population. and so that's an issue. and i think the obama evisceration like the bush administration would like to give food aid to the north koreans, but they are very concerned that it's not going to go to the people who need it most. >> well, i want to thank you, dr. bechtol, for a very interesting program. you've certainly got my pulse rate up a little bit about north korea. thank you so much. that's all. thank you all so much. [applause] >> and his book is for sale if you don't have one already. go ahead and get one and he will sit here. he will sign it for you. so thank you all for joining us for the program tonight. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> for more on author bruce
bechtol and his work come visit angelo.edu/faculty/bbechtol. >> and here at book expo america, the publishers annual convention in new york city, regnery publishing inc. is here as well. and with booktv to preview some of their fall 20 oh 11 bought titles we are joined by the publisher of regnery, marji ross. i want to start with a book that you don't have out yet because you just signed a deal today. what is that you? >> you are right. thank you, peter. the big news for regnery is which assigned a big book with donald trump. we are going to be doing a political book within this fall. and we are really interested in doing this book because we feel he touch with a rok played with a lot of people out there in
america who said gosh, he think a lot of things that i agree with. i kind of agree with what he has to say about china and trade and taxes and a convent and isn't it refreshing to have someone who is able to say these things and not be afraid. >> speaking of me? ben franklin? editor shows up at the bookstore. >> so we're very excited about this book. it's about how to put america back on topic how to make american abroad and had to make america which again. there's no one better than donald trump to talk about how to be competitive, how to have leadership, how to get what you want at any deal and a negotiation, whether that's a real city or frankly whether you're a country negotiating with another country. it's made 2011 and you say this book is coming out in the fall? >> that's right. were probably the experts for better or worse at crashing books there because we do so many current event books, sobering news driven books.
we do something that most of the rest of the industry doesn't and that is what the books are very fast trac. we know that when we captured the imagination of the audience we want to get that book out as fast as possible. so we're putting us on the fast track and we will have it out there before christmas. we are very excited about that. >> you've got a couple of the books we want to talk about. let's start with newt gingrich's most recent book. >> all right. we are very excited also to be having our next book with newt gingrich. we done several books over the past several years. they've all been big bestsellers. and, of course, he's a real leading figure in the conservative marketplace, on the republican stage. and, in fact, has driven in a lot of ways the discussion about important topics that are going to be coming up in this election cycle. buy this book is different actually than the books were done within before. because previously his books were very policy have and to
talk about a lot of solutions are problems that we face. and what areas with his book which is called "a nation like no other," take a more historical viewpoint which record track is perfectly poised to do because he is a historian, and talking about what makes this country exceptional, what makes this country great and how are we in danger of losing that. one of the most interesting things that he said to me was that in polls across the country when you asked americans, do you believe in american exceptionalism they all say yes, we do. then when you follow up, what does that mean? most of them don't know or they can't answer it. his argument is that's given to liberal media and the liberal elite an opportunity to denigrate it. and to say oh, american exceptionalism, that's just, you know, xenophobic. it's bragging about how wonderful we are. we are no better than anyone else. newt gingrich makes the are you is not about us being more
talented or smarter, it's actually about being luckier than ever else for having the good fortune to be born in a country that really is based on freedom of expression, freedom of speech, the freedom to work hard, reap the results of that, and live your own life with great individual liberty. >> marji ross, for the first time in six years, marc stein has a new book coming out. >> and we waited a long time for this book. mark stein, one of the best writers in the most insightful writers on the scene, political scenes wrote a book for us six years ago called america alone. it was an instant bestseller. is a wonderful, wonderful book. we've now been waiting another six years to have the follow up. we got it now. we are excited to it comes out in august and it's called "after america." and it is as ominous as it sounds.
his previous book argues america was alone in speaking to the principles that made western civilization great. and, unfortunately, the follow on his not so sure that america is on the right path anymore. and if we abandoned those things which made his great we are very much in jeopardy of losing it all. >> mark stein is, i used the word recluse and maybe i'm wrong about that speed i used that word, too. >> will he be going onto her? >> he will. it's interesting that he's one of those rare authors who have said to us before, why would i be on tv if i don't have a book to promote, which is wonderful words to hear as a publisher. if he's very excited about promoting the book. and he's a terrific book person. he's witty and funny and incisive. and because what he's saying is so frightening and devastating, you need to add a little humor and wit to make it palatable. and he has the perfect combination of all those things.
>> marji ross is the publisher of regnery. regnery is well-known as as a conservative political imprints, but they have a new project coming up and it's called regnery history. margery house, what is it is about? >> we do. thank you for asking about that because we are excited about launching a new line of books on history. military history, and american history in particular. we've published history books in the past and they've done quite well. we've done the occasional history book. but we realize that this is a category that our market is very interested in and likes a lot, and that we were publishing of history books on the same sort of crashed breakneck schedule that we were publishing our current event book on. and i wasn't serving them well. they were almost successful despite our best efforts. this time around we said we'll dedicated team and we are going to put these books on the kind of timeline that really makes sense. so we can give them all the
support, the long lead me will be able to let them have galleys and arcs and get them in the hands of reviewers long in advance. and, frankly, already is proving successful because our first book out, which is called omar bradley, which is a biography of course of the great world war ii general, that book has been picked up by both the military book club and a history book club. so when we give ourselves enough time, we see that these books really well thrive and we're excited about that. and a couple of the books we have coming as well. >> once one of the history in print books that is coming out? >> another book that is we think going to be, do very well is a book at a very interesting book called only. this book is a book, not surprisingly, about teddy roosevelt. but one of the really unique things about it is it includes 200 plus original vintage political cartoons. and so we feel there are a lot of people out there of course your big pete -- tr fans and
there's a lot of wonderful books about teddy roosevelt. but this bookish and make and these cartoons are unique because most of them have never been seen since they were published in a magazine or newspaper 100 years ago. so we really feel like this is a wonderful way to illustrate his life, at times he was living in, and to give some flavor to a biography of one of the most interesting and beloved presidents. said this is going to be a lot of fun for us. >> and we've been talking with marji ross who is the publisher of regnery, getting a preview of some of the upcoming books from regnery publishing. >> thank you very much. >> from frankfort, kentucky, booktv talks with connie crowe, manager of the kentucky book fair. >> kentucky book fair was started 30 years ago by karl west, two of our founding members who are still involved
today. we're a nonprofit organization and our purposes are to provide grants, public schools and libraries, to bring readers together in a literary if you will atmosphere, and to promote the love of reading and literacy throughout the commonwealth to our last count we had about 4000 people who attended our event. our focus is primary on kentucky office but we do except regional and nationally known authors pick over the past 30 years we've had just a wonderful array of authors. mickey mantle, erma bombeck, rosalynn carter, roger mudd, you know, just a lot of people to draw in the crowd. but we do kentucky authors as well. >> what role does the book festival play in the community? >> oh, i tend to think it's an institution but after 30 years we are one of the oldest in the country. we provide grants to build a library. that's the sole purpose to i'm the only paid staffer. we have a 30 member board.
>> how have you noticed, has the readership changed? the demographic of the area changed? >> our demographic probably tends to skew a little bit older, baby boomer and above. and then younger. sent to offer such a wonderful aubrey of children's authors and activities, people bring their grandkids now. we are building on that new leadership. >> and what dates did you say this would be held? >> november 12 at 2011 at the frankfort convention center in downtown frankfort. >> booktv was in frankfort, kentucky, as part of our cities to her when we visit several southeastern cities over the next few months. to bring a taste of their literary history and culture. our partner in print for contact with local affiliate frankfort plant board. for more information on this and events from other cities, visit c-span.org/localcontent.